Tuesday, December 1, 2015

IFBF Annual Meeting

Idaho Wheat market flat

Fort Hall--The wheat market is flat, according market analyst Clark Johnston. Johnston gave a workshop on the wheat market to a packed house at the Idaho Farm Bureau Annual Meeting this afternoon in Fort Hall.

We asked Johnston a few questions about making money in a flat market. 
"The first thing is the need for good, accurate records," said Johnston. "We need to know where the breakeven numbers are so we’re not continually chasing the market. The next thing is that when we see a bump in the market whether its basis, futures or whatever. Thats when they give us .20 cents, we need to jump on that. We’ve learned that what the market gives us, it takes away. Three weeks ago we went up .20 cents and the following week, dropped to .32. 

But many sell when the going gets rough?
When people sell at the bottom, it's one of two things, either it's a payment they have to make or they rode the market down so far that they get out before it goes further, rather than looking at the longterm market, study it, look for an opportunity to recoup some of the losses they’ve had in there.

How important is it to keep emotion out of a farmer’s marketing plan? 
The thing with marketing is that you have to be unemotional about it, this can’t be your baby. So unemotional and when it hits at this level no matter what, sell.

Is it best to take a step back when selling?
This is their baby, they prepared the ground, they grew the seeds; they’re too emotionally involved in this crop and unlike a company downtown that producing widgets, once you’ve sold that bushel of wheat, you don't get it back until next year. We have to make sure we’re getting the best price we can in today’s market, next years and even two years down the road. We’re going to sell at a profit, thats it and if we can get that done, we live to play the game another year.

What is wheat doing now?
Soft white wheat is going for $5.15 picked up at the bin here in Blackfoot, that's better than it has been. We’ve seen bushels move for $5.50, but those guys jumped on it and the bid was gone that fast.

How important is it to get a second opinion?
You have to sell when you see these prices, you can't go to the coffee shop and get everyone's opinion, do your own thing, when it's right, it's right.

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